AR11967 Continues its Flaring and AR11968 Sends a CME Our Way

mdi_sunspots_1024

 There are two main active regions (ARs 11967/11968) on the sun and both are giving a moderate show.

mdi_sunspots_1024

AR11967 continues to produce C- and M-level events, including an M3.0 flare at 07:14 UT Feb. 1, 2014. The region continues to show signs of magnetic flux emergence and merging sunspots in its core. Flaring activity at the M5 level or greater over the next day or two is likely. (from Max Millennium 2/1/2014)

This video shows the event using SDO/AIA 131, 171 and 193 composite images.

This video shows the event using SDO/AIA 131, 171 and 193 composite images.

Preliminary heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) estimates the CME may impact Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth at about Feb. 3, 2014 around 16:42 UT (the standard quoted error to the time is +- 7 hours.)  An estimate for geomagnetic activity is Kp from 4-6. This is an upper limit and corresponds to a below minor to moderated geomagnetic event. This could mean that high latitude aurora observers may see enhanced aurora. The simulation also indicates that the CME may affect MESSENGER.  The leading edge of the CME will reach MESSENGER on Feb. 2, 2014 at 11:06 UT.

20140131_224700_anim.tim-den

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *