Earth Bound CME Predicted with X1 Flare Event

An X1.4 solar flare observed in the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) 131 Angstrom wavelength camera. The flare peaked in X-rays at 16:20 UT (12:52 EDT).

An X1.4 solar flare observed in the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) 131 Angstrom wavelength camera. The flare peaked in X-rays at 16:20 UT (12:52 EDT).

Possible Moderate to Severe Geomagnetic Storm

An X1.4 solar flare observed in the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) 131 Angstrom wavelength camera. The flare peaked in X-rays at 16:20 UT (12:52 EDT).

Sunspot group, AR11520, produced an X1.4 solar flare, peaking in the NOAA GOES X-ray monitor at 16:52 UT (12:52 EDT). This flash of electromagnetic radiation temporarily altered the upper atmosphere changing its ability to reflect and transmit certain radio frequencies. This produced a radio blackout lasting around 1 hour. This radio blackout event is an R3 event on the NOAA scale (R1-R5 scale). Along with the flare high energy subatomic particles at the S1 level (S1-S5 scale).

There was an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) launched in the direction of Earth.

Here is the computer model from NASA Goddard Space Weather Center. The CME is predicted to impact Earth, Messenger, Spitzer, MSL, Mars. The CME is expected to impact Earth 7/14/2012 at 10:20 UT (+-7 hrs), 6:20 am EDT.

The predicted impact is for a G2 – G4 level geomagnetic storm, moderate to severe. This could produce aurora as far south as northern California and Alabama. This would be into central UK and Europe or southern New Zealand. At its worst it could lead to some intermittent satellite/radio navigation problems, surface charging on satellites and power grid fluctuations. But the larger storm is less likely as these are rough estimates.

credit: NASA Goddard Space Weather Center

original alert: http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov/main/20120712-AL-006

4 Comments

  1. Katie Black says:

    I appreciate this site, I have learned so much about the sun and have a lot of fun reading about the flares and storms. Not to mention impressing my friends.

    Thank you!

  2. William Boyden says:

    What are the physical effects and on orbits of solid objects from a strong CME? Near earth objects, could their orbits be significantly changed? If so, then current calculations would need to be adjusted for such events? This is assuming that a CME will have an effect on the intensity of the solar winds?

  3. […] than normal.C. Alex Young, a Solar Astrophysicist from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, reported that aurora sightings may occur as far south as central UK.This could produce aurora as far south as northern California and Alabama. This would be into […]

  4. f says:

    Will a solar storm affect/fry gadgets? Will I lose info stored on HDDs/SSds from a CME? How can I protect them?

  5. Ric says:

    How often do you update ? Site is 8 days old here today.

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