Solar Facts and Space Weather
21:21 UT (5/23/2013) - Proton levels the eruption are still at the S2 NOAA alert level, down from S3. The particles are very apparent in SOHO/LASCO C2, showing up as “snow” on the images. 1:17 UT (5/23/2013) – Currently, a S2 level (scale of 1-5) proton is in effect as a result of the eruption. 19:20 [...]
16:16 UT - NASA SWRC simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Spitzer at 2:56 UT 5/19/2013 and Earth at 11:59 UT 5/19/2013 (+- 7 hrs). Roughly estimated expected maximum Kp index is 5-6 (minor to moderate). 14:30 UT – Initial estimates for the CME speed are ~1200 km/s. A detailed computer [...]
Wiggly Jiggly Loops by 4 flares from an evolving sunspot AR11748 showed us some exciting yet basically benign activity. A little image processing helps us really see certain aspects of the activity. Keep an eye out for wiggling loops set in motion by the eruptions (from the X flares – all 4 are in the [...]
The active region that could, has again given us an X flare! That makes 4! 12:15 UT – The NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center has estimated that the CME may give a glancing blow to Epoxi (~5/18/2013 06:00 UT) and hit Spitzer (~5/17/2013 00:30 UT plus minus 7 hours). There is also a small chance [...]
The unnamed region on the east limb has produced a 3rd X-class flare! (Updated) 11:44 UT – The NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center has estimated that the CME will merge with CMEs associated with the 2 X-flares (X1.7 and X2.8) and may give a glancing blow to STEREO B (~05/15/2013 18:00 UT) and Epoxi (~05/16/2013 00:00 UT) and hit [...]
A sunspot region with potential, AR11678! Yes pun intended. This solar active region (AR for short) has emerged suddenly from under the solar photosphere (the visible “surface”) packed with magnetic potential energy and the potential for some significant flaring. It has grown to over 6 Earth diameters across but its full extent is hard to [...]
An M1.7 flare peaked at 02:23 UT, November 8, 2012. This is not really a big flare but everybody’s attention picks up when the activity level reached M-class (mine included). I don’t yet know where the event came from (waiting for more data) but I think it came from the new region open [...]
Two new active regions could bring solar activity, one numbered (AR11589) and one not yet on the solar disk. Based on recent activity M class flares are possible from both. The region just over the limb produced an M1 flare at 5:04 UT. Geomagnetic activity continued last night with many aurora reports. Pilot Matt [...]
Possible Moderate to Severe Geomagnetic Storm Sunspot group, AR11520, produced an X1.4 solar flare, peaking in the NOAA GOES X-ray monitor at 16:52 UT (12:52 EDT). This flash of electromagnetic radiation temporarily altered the upper atmosphere changing its ability to reflect and transmit certain radio frequencies. This produced a radio blackout lasting around 1 hour. [...]
4 M-class Flares and More A new active region (AR11476) has been rotating into view during the beginning of May 2012. It has been producing CMEs and by May 5th it started releasing small M-class flares and lots of C-class flares. Between May 5-6, it produced 4 M1 flares. The video below shows the 4 [...]
